Calibrated forecasts, on the record
Decisions rest on forecasts, and most forecasts cannot be defended: the question was loose, the reasoning was not recorded, and the outcome was never checked against a source agreed in advance. A number without a fixed question, a stated base rate and a resolution rule is a guess with a decimal point.
The SolutionFireball formalizes the scientific and probabilistic method as a procedure that code enforces. Every forecast carries its exact question, its base rate and where it came from, the evidence that moved it and by how much, and the rule that will decide it. The reasoning is transparent while the forecast is open, auditable after it resolves, and outcomes are published to Etched In Stone, Watchfire's timestamped public record, where they are checked against the result in the open and never rewritten.
Discuss how Fireball can put calibrated, defensible forecasts inside your decisions — on your own questions, under contract, or through curated topics in the Client Portal.